This article ties in nicely with our discussion about predictions and vulnerability of populations. According to a research team from the University of Tokyo, compared to previous years, the seismic activity occurring near the Tokyo area has been five times greater since the 9.0 magnitude quake hit Japan's northeastern shore last March. Due to this massive uptick in activity, they predict there is a 75% chance of a magnitude 7.
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0 earthquake hitting Tokyo in the next four years, but the Japanese government disagrees; it predicts only a 70% chance of the same event happening over the next 30 years.

So, who's correct? And does it even matter? The article calls Japan one of the most quake-prone countries in the world. And we know that predictions are essentially educated guesses; there could be an even stronger earthquake that hits Japan in fewer than the predicted four years. There's no way to tell what the future will bring.
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It's not clear if the Japanese government is trying to ignore the possibility of another earthquake, or if they just have different results, but either way, their number one priority should be preparing for the next one, regardless of when it may or may not happen.

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